LebowskiUrbanAchievers
56 posts
msg #91268
- Ignore LebowskiUrbanAchievers |
4/16/2010 11:47:56 AM
PMI hit it's target today. After a long week.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #91282
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
4/16/2010 1:59:35 PM
Actually it hit it's target yesterday - and I hope that anyone playing these got their 5% before today, cause it's all disappearing down the drain as of the GS announcement.
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wsxian
1 posts
msg #91289
- Ignore wsxian |
4/16/2010 3:15:42 PM
I am new to StockFetcher and have been reading the postings on this filter.
It seems to me that one possible addition to the initial filter is this:
and mfi is increasing over 2 days
and mfi > 10
I ran the filter today (yes, it is not the day to do it, I should wait till Saturday...) and I got two picks:
PCBC
MBI
[INSERT JPG here of Graphs of PCBC and MBI from filter ---not sure how to do this]
If you look at the MFI graph for PCBC you can see that PCBC has a saw tooth pattern that goes up and then comes down with the price. This seems to indicate that there is some possible downside when bought while the MFI is high (which is what is showing for this date).
If you look at the MFI graph for MBI, you see a smooth build up which seems to indicate that the price will continue to go up.
I would choose to invest in MBI and let PCBC drop a bit then pick it up after the drop.
Then again - if you look at the PCBC graph you will note the MFI seems to retreat from 80 but the graph also seems to indicate that it has broken past this resistance level and if there is such a thing as resistance level with MFI, then the price is on a break out and should rise.
So ignore what I said...my legal thinking (what if?) at work here....
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #91293
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
4/16/2010 3:28:48 PM
Interesting, but remember - 5 out of 7 hit this week. That's pretty good performnce all by itself.
Historically, investing in the just the top scoring pick each Monday from this filter over the past 15 months or so has generated +150% return.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #91302
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified |
4/16/2010 5:12:59 PM
This approach may actually benefit from today's action. If there is any significant positive news over the weekend, the bullish Monday phenomenon may come into play big-time, which would help the stocks returned by this filter make some strong moves.
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timgilliland
1 posts
msg #91369
- Ignore timgilliland |
4/18/2010 4:34:52 PM
Question, say your plays trigger on a Monday, are you done for the week or do the picks from the filter still have life in them?
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hmsb4494
81 posts
msg #91393
- Ignore hmsb4494
modified |
4/19/2010 1:27:38 AM
kevin,
have you done anything with stops less than 10%?
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #91397
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
4/19/2010 8:18:59 AM
Question, say your plays trigger on a Monday, are you done for the week or do the picks from the filter still have life in them?
+++++++++++++++++
The statistical analysis underpinning this approach is based only on the Monday morning open price. If you want to try to play other stocks (or the same stock again) during the week, there is no analysis that would support it.
That does not mean it wouldn't work, it only means that this filter (and the results from it) are to be used as intended.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #91398
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
4/19/2010 8:22:45 AM
kevin,
have you done anything with stops less than 10%?
+++++++++++++
I did look at tighter stops, but the original analysis was from late 2008, so lots of stops triggered. 10% seemed to be about the right seting (eyeballing it - not a "true" analysis).
What I don't like about this is that you are setting up for a reward/risk ratio of 0.5. The filter obviously works, but that is the one part of it that I am not really comfortable with.
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hmsb4494
81 posts
msg #91420
- Ignore hmsb4494 |
4/19/2010 10:30:55 PM
yeah in my VERY modest account a 4/5 (80%) win rate gives a VERY,VERY modest profit.
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