kmcninvest
43 posts
msg #82057
- Ignore kmcninvest |
10/29/2009 6:13:44 PM
two notes to the above:
If you are going to short stocks under $5 you need a direct access broker.
Tro posted this and I think it very much applies to this strategy:
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"Look, for example, at this elegant little experiment. A rat was put in a T-shaped maze with a few morsels of food placed on either the far right or left side of the enclosure. The placement of the food is randomly determined, but the dice is rigged: over the long run, the food was placed on the left side sixty per cent of the time. How did the rat respond? It quickly realized that the left side was more rewarding. As a result, it always went to the left, which resulted in a sixty percent success rate. The rat didn't strive for perfection. It didn't search for a Unified Theory of the T-shaped maze, or try to decipher the disorder. Instead, it accepted the inherent uncertainty of the reward and learned to settle for the best possible alternative.
The experiment was then repeated with Yale undergraduates. Unlike the rat, their swollen brains stubbornly searched for the elusive pattern that determined the placement of the reward. They made predictions and then tried to learn from their prediction errors. The problem was that there was nothing to predict: the randomness was real. Because the students refused to settle for a 60 percent success rate, they ended up with a 52 percent success rate. Although most of the students were convinced they were making progress towards identifying the underlying algorithm, they were actually being outsmarted by a rat."
P64 HOW WE DECIDE
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jnafach
74 posts
msg #82063
- Ignore jnafach |
10/29/2009 7:56:10 PM
You may call me stupid, but I can not figure out how are you guys find best candidate on what column do you click on to see them in order
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #82064
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
10/29/2009 8:24:53 PM
The list is sorted on REWARD, with 3.00 being the best possible score.
In case of a REWARD tie, use the PERFORMANCE value as the tie-breaker.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #82137
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
10/30/2009 2:22:13 PM
Not a good week for the 5% movers (actually not a good week for any stock given the high volatility).
Here's how the top 3 selections played out:
KFN - weekly open at $5.36, currently at $4.54 (10% stop loss tripped)
PSUN - weekly open at $6.82, currently at $5.97 (10% stop loss tripped)
SVM - weekly open at $5.50, currently at $4.87 (10% stop loss tripped)
None of these stocks had any opportunity to get near the 5% profit stop this week.
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rkurtz76
13 posts
msg #82144
- Ignore rkurtz76 |
10/30/2009 3:08:14 PM
Definitely a bad week. I'll try again next week.
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kmcninvest
43 posts
msg #82161
- Ignore kmcninvest |
10/30/2009 10:55:27 PM
Are you looking at the short 5% list also?
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rkurtz76
13 posts
msg #82166
- Ignore rkurtz76 |
10/31/2009 7:04:00 AM
With the market turning I'll probably give serious consideration to a short this week.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #82167
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
10/31/2009 8:01:43 AM
SHORT FILTER
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #82189
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified |
10/31/2009 3:41:26 PM
SHORT OPTIONS
S - Sprint Corp FON Group 0.00 2.92 (0.00 for performance means no 10% stop loss would have been hit in the last 13 weeks)
INO - Genetronics Biomedi... 7.60 2.92
SOMX - SOMAXON PHARMACEUTIC 5.43 2.92
NEPH - NEPHROS INC 1.30 3.04 2.92
CHLN - CHINA HOUSING & LAND 4.00 2.92
BONU - BioNeutral Group Inc 1.90 2.92
CVM - CEL-SCI Corp 1.05 2.81 2.92
LONG OPTIONS
GKK - GRAMERCY CAPITAL CP 31.49 2.92
APWR - A-Power Energy Gene... 3.52 2.85
BQI - Oilsands Quest 4.35 2.85
ZLC - Zale Corp 3.52 2.85 (avoid this like the plague - not likely to hit 5% after last week's SEC revelation)
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rkurtz76
13 posts
msg #82268
- Ignore rkurtz76 |
11/2/2009 9:22:06 AM
I'll be shorting SWHC this week. Not on the 5% list but has consistently lost 4%.
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