pthomas215
1,251 posts
msg #134517
- Ignore pthomas215 |
2/23/2017 6:23:38 PM
so is it just me, or does it seem like the VIX is really heating up?? (just looking at charts, not necessarily filters).
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #134520
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
2/23/2017 7:39:06 PM
Yet it remains at a fairly high contango level (12.7% as of today's close). The VIX is the spot price, which we cannot actually trade - that is the real challenge to this system, one which I did not take into account in its development.
The absolute level of the ^VIX is secondary to its contango level if you are trying to trade volatility using VXX, XIV, TVIX, etc. One might pay more attention to the RATIO of ^VXV/^VIX or ^VIX/^VXST as a way to gauge directional trades, but I will stick with contango levels for my indicators.
I took a very substantial position in XIV today, given the high contango levels and roll yield (at 15% with 26 days until expiration).
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davesaint86
726 posts
msg #134530
- Ignore davesaint86 |
2/24/2017 8:51:05 AM
Kevin just to let you know, I have the highest one year (84%) public portfolio called Adaptive Midterm Volatility on ETFReplay. All I'm using is your weekly 3 week and daily price filters. I changed the allocation to VXX yesterday based on the daily triggering two days ago. The weekly is close to triggering a buy for VXX.
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SAFeTRADE
649 posts
msg #134927
- Ignore SAFeTRADE |
3/15/2017 7:24:58 AM
Here is an interesting take (I think) on Kevin's post from 2/23/2017.
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c1916
77 posts
msg #135044
- Ignore c1916 |
3/21/2017 9:55:12 PM
The simple IFT filter for volatility triggered today for the first time in about six weeks (UVXY to be specific). The question is whether this is a trailing indicator representing today's action or whether there will be an additional spike tomorrow. Traditionally it has been accurate as a predictor, FWIW.
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gmg733
788 posts
msg #135047
- Ignore gmg733 |
3/21/2017 10:57:50 PM
This pullback might be a good oppty to get into XIV or SVXY. :)
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #135057
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
3/22/2017 11:25:38 AM
Futures are expiring today - the new APR/MAY contango levels are only a little above 5%, and several of my secondary indicators are flashing caution. I agree that this is a pullback rather than a correction, but right now I want XIV to get to 69 or thereabouts before I jump in.
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shillllihs
6,101 posts
msg #135336
- Ignore shillllihs |
4/7/2017 7:39:16 PM
I know this is another of your defunct systems but wondering if the Xiv portion of it was plausible, I took another look. August 18, 2015, system 3 flashed long, then dropped 50%. How is this possible with your claim that non of the systems fell that low. Was it offset by a simultaneous exit signal?
I'll be waiting for an answer.
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simplegolpadia
11 posts
msg #135538
- Ignore simplegolpadia |
4/19/2017 10:38:26 PM
Hi Kevin,
I'm following trades from your 'KEVIN'S SHORTING 3X ETFS THREAD' thread. The success rate of those trades is simply amazing.
Are those trades based on the short filters at the beginning of this thread or are they from a different system not posted on SF ?
Best Regards.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #135541
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
4/20/2017 10:12:04 AM
A completely different set of filters - none are posted here. Note that while I use EOD data as the input for these filters, I decide my entries and exits discretionarily - usually using a limit order that is higher than the open price, and an exit based on a round number profit target (usually $250 or $500 unless the trade is running well in my favor).
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