TheRumpledOne
6,529 posts
msg #103649
- Ignore TheRumpledOne |
12/6/2011 3:39:07 PM
http://www.tradingacademy.com/lessons/20111206/featured_article.htm
Novice Gaps - Easy Opportunity for the Professional Trader
By Sam Seiden, Online Trading Academy Vice President of Education
Novice gaps are the ultimate picture of novice greed in the market. Why do I make gaps such an important part of the Extended Learning Track (XLT) program? Simple, because gaps are the most obvious way to spot a novice market speculator. Remember, if you can't spot the novice, consistently losing trader in a market, the novice trader is probably you. Just like the game of poker - if you sit down at the table and can't figure out quickly who will pay the table that night, it is likely you.
Gaps in price are great because they are the picture of a strong supply and demand imbalance when you understand them. Not every gap sends the same message or represents the same opportunity, so we structure them into an understandable checklist. Once this is done, we can use this information to spot the picture of very novice buying or selling and be there to take the low risk, high reward, and high probability trade.
Live Extended Learning Track (XLT) Session
Figure 1
Above is a chart of XLNX. In the XLT that morning, BEFORE the market opened and fell, we were going over the stock market. We do our analysis when the market is not open and moving so we can be very objective and plan our trades in advance to take care of the emotional issues related to trading for new traders. That morning, there was a gap up in the market and XLNX after a rally in price, in the context of a down trend, and into an area of supply (resistance). This is a clear novice trader signal because it represents such a huge mistake. Anyone who buys after a period of buying and at price levels where supply exceeds demand and in a market whose average price is declining is going to lose consistently over time; the laws of supply and demand ensure that. They may have a winning trade once in a while, but over time, they will lose the majority of the time. The only action worse than those two mistakes is when that person is buying a gap up, and that is what we had above with our XLNX opportunity. What we did next was to look at where the demand was below and determined it was much lower (blue line). This set up a scenario that suggested the path of least resistance is down, and once the market opened right into our supply level where we planned to sell short, price proceeded to decline to demand, our profit target. Could I have been wrong? Of course, that's trading which is why we focus on risk so much. Our goal in trading is not to create certainty because that never exists. Our goal is to become masters at objectively assessing the odds which means objectively quantifying real supply and demand and that is what we did.
Let's get back to gaps... In the XLT, we keep it simple. Here are some rules to keep in mind when you have a gap:
A gap up in price, into supply, after a rally in price and in the context of a downtrend, is a VERY high odds shorting opportunity.
A gap up in price, in the context of an uptrend, is a lower odds shorting opportunity and actually can be a buying opportunity on a pullback to demand when there is a significant profit margin above.
A gap down in price, into demand, after a decline in price and in the context of an uptrend, is a VERY high odds buying opportunity.
A gap down in price, in the context of a downtrend, is a lower odds buying opportunity and may in some cases be a shorting opportunity after a rally into supply when there is a significant profit margin below.
While there is much more on gaps than I can write about in a short piece such as this one, keep in mind that the picture of the ultimate supply and demand imbalance is a gap. When you are ready to take a trade, simply ask yourself, "Who is on the other side of my trade?" and make sure you are trading with someone who is making a big mistake according to the laws of supply and demand, motion into mass, or whatever version of this basic governing dynamic you want to call it. Instead of looking at red and green candles on a chart and following a conventional Technical Analysis book, start looking a little deeper and begin to understand the order flow that's going on behind the scenes that is responsible for the creation of those candles. These basic thoughts will likely give you an edge over those who are on the other side of your trades and having that edge is the key to trading anything. If you are tired of transferring your account into someone else's, stop looking at the market the same way everyone else does.
Have a great day.
- Sam Seiden
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TheRumpledOne
6,529 posts
msg #106502
- Ignore TheRumpledOne |
6/1/2012 7:31:20 PM
Years old and still working.
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jcwing01
1 posts
msg #106647
- Ignore jcwing01
modified |
6/15/2012 9:12:07 AM
I'm guessing you're not still milking the AAPL and RIMM cows (now a giant heifer, and emaciated swayback respectively). I'm trying FFIV and NFLX as of late. Are you still posting regularly in a forum or on chat TRO?
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joshng
4 posts
msg #108607
- Ignore joshng |
10/29/2012 2:00:17 AM
TRO,
Do you have a short filter for (gap fill statistics buy close, sell open). Thank you very much for your helps! Twin
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TheRumpledOne
6,529 posts
msg #108670
- Ignore TheRumpledOne |
11/2/2012 6:28:48 PM
I think I wrote an OVERNIGHT HOLD filter for longs. You could change it for shorts.
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TheRumpledOne
6,529 posts
msg #108671
- Ignore TheRumpledOne |
11/2/2012 6:40:37 PM
jcwing01
I'm guessing you're not still milking the AAPL and RIMM cows (now a giant heifer, and emaciated swayback respectively). I'm trying FFIV and NFLX as of late. Are you still posting regularly in a forum or on chat TRO?
=============================
Yes, I still post just not as often. I have been posting YouTube videos on trading, politics, prepping, etc....
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TheRumpledOne
6,529 posts
msg #109160
- Ignore TheRumpledOne |
12/6/2012 5:29:09 PM
*** POP ***
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agavaqif
8 posts
msg #117776
- Ignore agavaqif |
1/16/2014 4:07:46 AM
TRO what you think is it ok to add
open more than 2% below close 1 day ago
code to this filter and wait 3 4 days for gap to get filled?
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TheRumpledOne
6,529 posts
msg #118594
- Ignore TheRumpledOne |
3/11/2014 8:10:52 PM
NO!
Keep it simple.
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shillllihs
6,090 posts
msg #118630
- Ignore shillllihs |
3/15/2014 5:27:02 PM
Many big brains & mouths have tried to figure out the market & all have failed & disappeared...
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