TheRumpledOne
6,529 posts
msg #29249
- Ignore TheRumpledOne |
10/10/2003 9:06:10 AM
EWZuber:
BNBN had an RSI(2) bottom on 9/26 with higher bottoms on 10/2 and 10/7. Using Muddies' "wait for green", one would have been it and out with nice daily profits the day after each bottom.
Looking at BNBN with your slow stochastics (5,3), I think the crossover may have caused one a tough battle to take profits during this time period or cautioned one to not enter. Is this a valid interpretation?
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EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #29275
- Ignore EWZuber |
10/10/2003 5:47:31 PM
TheRumpledOne
Yes it is.
I wouldn't have looked at that as a good low risk entry and would have passed on it.
The best entry using stochastics and trendlines would have been on 8/15 or 8/18.
Here we have the Weekly chart stochastics +xover and Daily chart +xover also.
Also BNBN tested trendline resistance as new support on 8/15 and tested that same level on 8/18 and confirmed it as support.
That started a new uptrend with a new supporting trendline that was intact until 10/7 when it was broken on a closing basis and traded below it for a couple days.
Today BNBN gapped up to trendline resistance and sold off.
As you probably saw a wedge pattern is just about to be broken one way or another very soon.
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TheRumpledOne
6,529 posts
msg #29286
- Ignore TheRumpledOne |
10/11/2003 1:04:49 PM
RSI(2) < 1 spit these out:
EYEM 0.02
FLMIQ 0.02
MASG 0.02
CDED 0.04
WCOEQ 0.06
SLGLF 0.17
BIOHF 0.18
BEV 5.38
EMN 32.24
GIS 45.24
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE BUT HOW YOU TRADE IT!
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TheRumpledOne
6,529 posts
msg #29302
- Ignore TheRumpledOne |
10/12/2003 1:55:15 PM
MIRKQ ... bankrupt energy stock... showing positive divergence.
Missed the boat from .2x to .7x
Can't trade them all!
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TheRumpledOne
6,529 posts
msg #29341
- Ignore TheRumpledOne |
10/16/2003 9:17:15 PM
SNUS closed $5.30 today
10/14 bottomed at $4.63 RSI(2) = 1.02
Any questions?
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jthehut
124 posts
msg #29342
- Ignore jthehut |
10/16/2003 9:37:33 PM
Yes, I have a question....
If it actually doubled volume 2.5x (which it did), am I right or are YOU right about the stock?!?!?!?
Stopped watching it a few days ago since no price/volume movement, obviously a good $ maker, I humbly acknowledge your "crystal-ball"-like predictions, I only wish you could predict me my next stock... (you know my email addy!!!).
jthehut aka M
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EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #29344
- Ignore EWZuber |
10/17/2003 12:45:54 AM
I think it's great that the RSI(2) helped you find this one.
I'd like to point out that there were other indicators at work here that were also indicating a move higher.
The successful test of the 50 DMA & the stochastic fast line/slow line convergence on 10/13.
A trendline drawn from the high of 10/2 across the high of 10/7 & 10/9 and the bounce up off that trendline when it hit the 4 HR.MA which was supporting the stock at 10:45 AM this morning.
A buy at this point would have allowed for the majority of the move or 12.3%without having the money sitting for 3 days prior.
Just an alternative viewpoint.
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JoeGrossinger
165 posts
msg #29345
- Ignore JoeGrossinger |
10/17/2003 12:07:32 PM
Here are some basic truths that folks need to consider with every filter:
Anyone can "find" a stock after it has gone up.
None of the "my filter found THIS!!" messages mention the number of hits that went down instead of up or moved not all, or because of the low price, could not be bought at the specified penny because of MM action.
This in part explains the really horrid performance of RSI(2) on Koliga.com
http://www.koliga.com/forum/index.php?c=5
Those that are so smart that they never have to paper trade miss out on a lot of these facts since they never really get to watch a filter perform in real life.
Sure, the answer is "I'm the greatest trader and its my entry points that make the difference"
Fine, I can accept that. Those kinds of folks don't need filters, they just take a random assortment of stocks and then pick the winner.
They are a truly admirable group of people. If you are one of them, you don't need to bother with filters.
If you can't pick that 1 winner out of 10 or so stocks like some folks claim they do all the time, then you need a filter that gives you more hits than misses.
It's pointless to rave about one find if you can't point out that your filter does this on so many percent of the hits.
Any filter at some point can find the 100% or better gainer.
That means nothing.
Any chart indicator can find a winner. But no one can point to one indicator that wins all the time. I can invent a winning scenario for any chart, but what I can't do is make that scenario work all of the time in real life.
What actually counts is performance over time.
Unless you have the bucks of Buffet or Gates you are going to have to paper trade your butt off in order to find the 2 or 3 filters that perform over time.
The question for the trader is not "did your filter find such and such stock"
That is pointless.
The question for the trader is "how much did your filter gain or lose in actual trading last month?"
Those that don't paper trade can't answer that.
Using the SF date offset can't answer that either because it will give you daily hits, but you will be stuck with 5 or so stocks for days, so that is not a realistic test.
Anyone that has bought a basket of hits from any filter, or paper traded those hits knows that.
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knowsenough
54 posts
msg #29346
- Ignore knowsenough |
10/17/2003 1:43:27 PM
JoeGrossinger you've got it pegged.......
Filters can only lead you to water.....they can't make you drink. Here is my ideal filter.........
Show me stocks where the slope of the revenue increased the last 6 quarters
and the latest 10Q's income from operations is 25% higher than previous
and the bollinger width(20) is tighter than a frogs behind at 500' below sealevel
and RSI dictates I remove myself from the PC and occasionally take a bath
and do not sort because I only want three hits, but discard if address reads Bermuda........
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jthehut
124 posts
msg #29347
- Ignore jthehut |
10/17/2003 3:02:24 PM
What type of frog? This is important for my filter! (John Bollinger said so!)
M
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