| StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · RSI(2) - The Little Indicator That Could | << 1 ... 1 2 3 4 5 ... 26 >>Post Follow-up |
| TheRumpledOne 6,529 posts msg #29395 - Ignore TheRumpledOne |
10/21/2003 2:51:55 PM It's not exactly the filter I use Joe G. and you know it. Bottom line is, you don't buy every stock any filter spits out. This is the one I use: Backtest and papertrade all you want. Just post your confirmations so we can see real results not the "I could have made..." on paper. I also use rsi(2) below 10 on my watch list... that is how I found EXTR today. Those are good stocks that I want to catch when they drop. Next up will be SONS. RSI(2) was 6.83 yesterday. |
| JoeGrossinger 165 posts msg #29400 - Ignore JoeGrossinger |
10/21/2003 4:55:41 PM SONS looks like it could go either way. Bounce off the 20 average and go back up OR Do like its always done and head for the lower bb. The reason I don't like it is because the decline from its high cannot be positively attributed to an overbought situation. That is a warning. Bollinger states that a move starting at one end of the band will carry to the other a lot of times. True enough. However, I have found that a lot of stocks get overbought and then drop to near the 20 day average, which is half the band width. Then they start climbing again. The trick is knowing which is which. Since RSI(14) never went into overbought condition (as it always did before) I am going to assume the safe thing and avoid SONS. There are better and safer plays. http://www.koliga.com/forum/index.php |
| keithray 13 posts msg #29402 - Ignore keithray |
10/21/2003 10:11:13 PM Joe, I ran this filter using different offsets, and the performance changes dramatically. There are a number of factors involved in the use of a filter: 1. time frame for holding the stocks 2. entry signal 3. percent of big movers 4. sell signal 5. setting of stops Tonight (Tuesday), I ran the filter again, and here are the results: PCOM - +0.00% QMCI - -2.86% EXBT - +14.29% NCEH - +30.30% VAI - -8.45% NRXI - +12.90% OCRI - +42.86% ASRNF - +1.61% THIS IS A 91% PROFIT IN 5 DAYS!!!! "It's one thing to hype the gains, but you have to include the losers to get a true and accurate picture." I don't really agree with you about this. The results that I posted above shows some really big percentage gainers. One big gainer can make up for a lot of losers. And, with good money management, the losers don't turn into big losers. There is another important factor, and that is the entry signal. Having a good entry signal can eliminate picking a lot of losers. "We are dealing with money." Yes, we are dealing with money. But, just using StockFetcher and an offset in the filter to gauge performance, is not going to tell you whether you can make money or not with a filter. Early this morning(Tuesday), I took the Muddy picks posted by jon_p_rowe, and selected the ones I wanted to watch. Here are his picks: TRIPLE MATCH SGEN FORG CTIC DOUBLE MATCH WIN DRF I eliminated FORG because an earnings announcement is due Friday. I don't want to be in a stock when earnings are announced...too risky. I watched the other stocks trade. SGEN took off and moved up quickly...it moved up so fast that I decided to let it go...don't like chasing stocks. CTIC bounced around between red and green for about 5 minutes. When it finally settled down and was green, I bought. I also bought WIN because it turned green. At the end of the day, I could have closed these positions with a 6.5% profit. There was no loser. Yes, FORG and DRF went down today. But, by waiting and watching for green, these losers were eliminated. That is why there is a vast difference between paper trading and actual trading. And, that is why just looking at performance as a measure of whether a filter is good or bad is not going to give a true picture. |
| JoeGrossinger 165 posts msg #29405 - Ignore JoeGrossinger |
10/22/2003 9:49:10 AM Well, first of all it's not 90.65% You simply added all 8 hits and then say "UP 90.65%", which is incorrect. If you were smart and bought all of the picks, held them for a week you would have made 11.33% not 90.65% since you have to divide the total from all 8 hits by those 8 hits. Filters will give a different result every day that you run them of course. It all depends. Do you have enoug money to buy all the hits, every day? If not, then you have to look at the losers vs the winners and calculate those odds as well. If you only bought 1 stock then your odds were 50-50 that you will have made less than 2% for the week. That is why I always recommend at least 3, preferably 5 stocks be purchased in order to spread your risk. That is also why my paper trades on Koliga.com vary substantially from what it looks like you might get by just off setting the date when you run the filter. |
| JoeGrossinger 165 posts msg #29406 - Ignore JoeGrossinger |
10/22/2003 11:29:26 AM That is why there is a vast difference between paper trading and actual trading. That statement makes absolutely no sense unless you consider back dating SF as paper trading. IF you paperTRADE then you buy on paper JUST AS IF YOU PAID FOR THE STOCK. That is paper trading. I don't know how you do it, but I paper trade just as if I were actually buying and selling. Offsetting the date on SF is NOT backtesting. |
| jthehut 124 posts msg #29415 - Ignore jthehut |
10/22/2003 2:56:32 PM Joe G what about NOT getting filled and/or partial fills??? Trust me, it's MUCH EASIER on paper than in the "real" world, and the thing that's the hardest is #1 to get the fill and #2 to get the fill at a CERTAIN price. I was a millionaire many times over on paper, but haven't done it yet in "real" life... ;( Joe, I read most of your posts...and some I'll enjoy...but there is NO WAY you can say paper trading is the same as real trading! PT is good for an absolute beginner to get a feel for how to trade, but still comes short. MY HO, jabba-the-hut |
| JoeGrossinger 165 posts msg #29420 - Ignore JoeGrossinger |
10/22/2003 4:05:27 PM I never said Paper Trading is the exact same thing as Money Trading. I answered the statement that paper trading "is vastly different" from money trading. It is not vastly different. I don't buy the partial fills and all that. I never have a problem with that. Probably not in 99% of my trades do I have a problem with fills. I don't buy stocks where only a very few shares are traded. I never deal in those. When I place a buy I place it a bit above the last traded price because I want the stock and don't want to have to chase it. So I get my orders filled. When I sell, I place my order the same way. A bit lower from the last trade because I want out and an I want out now. So to me that is just not a very good argument vs the fact that I paper trade to try new ideas and new ways of trading. I may not be 100% in the ball park but paper trading is at least 90% like real trading. Nobody ever tries to claim that the military training is like a real war. However that does not keep them from spending billions on training. It's the training that makes the difference. It is the same with tennis, boxing and everything else. Practice makes perfect. I have never seen a boxer get into the ring without training, and nobody can say sparring is the same thing as a million dollar fight. I state over and over that you have to paper trade like you actually trade. That precludes taking flyers on junk that you would never buy in real life. It means you must start with a set amount of money, adding and subtracting just like it happens in real life. You must select your stocks just as if you were going to buy it with real bucks. Must keep your system as realistic as possible. Train like you trade and trade like you train. That works! The biggest difference is EMOTION. That is what breaks most traders and that is precluded in paper trading. However, knowing this traders must do everything they can to preclude it from their real trades as well. The only way I know how to do that is with tested systems. I don't test with my money. Not ever. The biggest difference between proper paper trading and money trading is emotion. It's hard to factor out fear and greed when dealing with real money. However, it is precisely fear and greed that cause folks to lose money and that is precisely why I insist on sytematic trading instead of of-the-cuff trading. |
| keithray 13 posts msg #29425 - Ignore keithray |
10/22/2003 11:36:42 PM Your right about the percentages being more like 11% instead of 90% if you were to buy all the stocks on the offset day. As an example, I was basing my percentage on buying one stock, holding it for 5 days, then buying the next stock and holding it 5 days, and etc. So, over a span of 40 trading days, the profit would be 90%. |
| JoeGrossinger 165 posts msg #29426 - Ignore JoeGrossinger |
10/23/2003 12:03:44 AM Yeah, right. Whatever. |
| TheRumpledOne 6,529 posts msg #29429 - Ignore TheRumpledOne |
10/23/2003 12:55:06 PM Very intelligent answer there Joe G. Once again, you have been exposed. Market Red, go to bed... Leave trading to those who trade with REAL MONEY. |
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